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You've gotta at least start off with how good they were last year as an anchoring point, seeing as they didn't make a change at QB or get somebody back healthy, and then adjust from there. The anchoring point for the Chargers is that they were 7 with a point differential if you include Kansas City Royals Minion Baseball Mascot Cartoon Shirt Shirt don't see how any of what you said moves the needle that far away from 7. For a team like the Ravens, who will have better QB health, have a new star pass rusher, and changed their entire coaching staff, its a lot easier to project some radical change from the previous seasons results.