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You've gotta at least start off with how good they were last year as an anchoring point, seeing as they didn't make a change at QB or get somebody back healthy, and then adjust from there. The anchoring point for the Chargers is that they were 7 with a point differential if you include Williams F1 Team Snoopy Racing Driver Steering Wheel T Shirt don't see how any of what you said moves the needle that far away from 7 . For a team like the Ravens, who will probably have better QB health, have a new star pass rusher, and changed their entire coaching staff, its a lot easier to project some radical change from the previous seasons results.